The projection appears in the latest report by the World Economic Forum, “The Ocean Economy Imperative: Defining Value, Managing Risk and Mobilizing Investment” (January 2026), developed in collaboration with McKinsey & Company.

At a time of slower economic growth, mounting pressure on natural resources, and increasing geopolitical and climate volatility, the ocean is emerging not only as an environmental asset, but as critical economic infrastructure.

Ocean economy: invisible, yet structural

The report estimates that the current value of the ocean economy exceeds $3 trillion, spanning sectors such as maritime transport, offshore energy, aquaculture, coastal tourism, marine biotechnology and subsea digital infrastructure.

The figures help illustrate the scale:

• 80% of global trade volumes are transported by sea

• More than 3 billion people rely on seafood as a significant source of protein

• Over 95% of international communications are carried through submarine cables

• 2.75 billion people live within 100 km of the coast

If it were a country, the ocean economy would rank as the fifth-largest economy in the world.

Despite its scale, it remains frequently undervalued, and, more importantly, underfinanced.

The risk is already embedded in the system

One of the report’s central messages is clear: exposure to the ocean is not sectoral, it is systemic.

Coastal assets, global logistics chains, port infrastructure and supply chains depend, directly or indirectly, on the stability of ocean systems.

Several figures highlight this vulnerability:

• $191.5 billion in trade is annually exposed to disruptions at key maritime chokepoints

• Between $67 and $81 billion in global trade is at annual risk due to climate-related port disruptions

• Up to $4 trillion in coastal infrastructure could be at risk in the coming decades

The issue, the report emphasises, is not merely the inevitability of risk, but its underpricing. The integration of ocean-related risk metrics into financial decision-making remains limited, despite increasing market exposure.

Where is growth occurring?

The ocean economy has outpaced global economic growth over recent decades, driven by two main dynamics.

On one hand, established sectors that continue to accelerate: aquaculture, desalination, offshore wind energy, port digitalisation and shipping decarbonisation.

On the other, emerging industries with significant expansion potential, including the blue bioeconomy, wave and tidal energy, ecosystem restoration markets, pollution mitigation technologies and marine carbon capture.

Between 2010 and 2025, the cumulative enterprise value of start-ups operating in emerging ocean economy areas increased from $1.1 billion to $24.7 billion. While technological maturity remains uneven, the innovation pipeline is clearly consolidating.

From environmental theme to strategic infrastructure

One of the report’s key conclusions is the need to reposition the ocean economy as an integral part of global economic infrastructure, rather than viewing it solely as an environmental niche.

Mobilising capital towards the ocean is not only a matter of sustainability. It is equally a matter of competitiveness, resilience and economic security.

The report recommends that businesses and investors:

• Assess their current exposure to ocean-related risk

• Develop dedicated investment theses for high-growth ocean sectors

• Integrate blue financial instruments into their strategies

• Position themselves as active agents in shaping the future of the ocean economy

A debate gaining momentum

The report reinforces a clear trend: the ocean economy is entering a new phase, characterised by greater financial sophistication, improved risk management and the need for stronger digital infrastructure.

It is within this context that Blue Wink-E 2026 | Ocean AI Futures, taking place on 20 March at the Porto Cruise Terminal in Leixões, will explore the role of artificial intelligence and digital transformation in structuring the future of the blue economy.

At a time when capital is seeking resilient assets and sustainable growth models, the challenge is no longer simply to identify ocean opportunities, but to build the tools that allow them to be assessed, financed and scaled with greater precision.

The debate is consolidating internationally. Portugal is positioning itself as an active contributor to that conversation.